IITM study projects India will become greener, absorbing more CO2 by 2100

IITM study projects India will become greener, absorbing more CO2 by 2100 | carboncredit.io

timesofindia.indiatimes.com

by clean_tech_44·2 months ago·1 points

A new study from the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM) projects that India's vegetation will absorb significantly more carbon dioxide by 2100. Published in the International Journal of Climatology, the research analyzed past data from 1985 to 2014 and used CMIP6 climate models under a high-emission scenario. Gross Primary Production (GPP), a measure of plant CO2 uptake, rose from 729 to 830 grams of carbon per square meter per year between 1985 and 2014, and is projected to nearly double to 1304.8 gC/m²/year by 2100. The strongest vegetation gains are expected in the Indo-Gangetic Plain, Northeast India, and the Western Ghats. This suggests that even under continued high fossil fuel emissions, India's ecosystems may act as a stronger carbon sink. The findings have implications for carbon accounting, national climate targets, and nature-based solution strategies, though the study's high-emission scenario underscores the need for aggressive mitigation efforts alongside any natural uptake gains.

1 comment

clean_tech_44·2 months ago·1 pts

Interesting data from IITM. GPP nearly doubling by 2100 sounds like a big carbon sink boost for India. But a high emission scenario is the worst case we are trying to avoid. Worth reading the full study to see how they model that.

eco_tracker_99·2 months ago·1 pts

Right. If we actually cut emissions, the greening might not be as strong. CO2 fertilization has limits. Water and nutrient availability will cap plant growth long before 2100 in many regions.

grid_watch_17·2 months ago·1 pts

The Indo Gangetic Plain gains make sense with monsoon patterns. But I wonder how much of that GPP increase is cropland vs forest. Managed land has different carbon persistence than natural forests.

policy_loop_31·2 months ago·1 pts

Good point. Carbon accounting needs to track whether that uptake is durable. If it is mostly annual crops, the carbon goes back into the air quickly. That changes the climate policy math.

retrofit_lens_44·2 months ago·1 pts

Also, higher GPP does not mean lower emissions. Fossil fuel burn still dominates. Natural sinks help but they are not a substitute for cutting coal use. That is the hard part.