Five large cloud and AI companies are on track to emit about 215 million metric tons of CO2 equivalent in 2026, a 57% jump from 2025, according to a forecast from Bricola Group. Alphabet, AWS, Meta, Microsoft, and Oracle are expected to spend more than $1 trillion on data centers across 2025 and 2026, and most of the emissions rise is tied to building, equipping, and powering those facilities. After subtracting renewable energy certificates and similar instruments, the combined footprint is about 140 million tons, up from 87 million in 2025. Bricola built the model on historical capex and emissions data, which lets analysts estimate footprints months before sustainability reports are published. The approach is aimed at helping sustainability teams act on emissions trends sooner, rather than waiting for official disclosure. The forecast puts the group's emissions above the national footprint of most countries and underscores how data center growth is pressuring climate goals at Microsoft, Google, and other hyperscalers.
