The EU is preparing to become one of the largest government buyers of international carbon credits, with plans to purchase up to 260 million tons of Article 6 credits between 2036 and 2040. A new paper from Environmental Defense Fund argues that the success of this effort depends less on credit pricing and more on diplomatic choices: who Europe buys from, what it asks in return, and how it builds partnerships over time. The paper recommends a two-stage approach: first, simple accounting agreements with many countries to build a broad supply base; second, deeper partnerships with the most promising sellers that combine policy commitments, development finance, and large-scale crediting programs. It also proposes an ambition-linked payment mechanism that would hold part of the credit price in escrow until host countries raise their next national climate targets. With COP31 underway and the European Commission set to publish its credit-use proposal in December, these design choices will shape the credibility of international carbon markets for years. The full EDF series is available at edf.org/international-credits-eu.
