New research models how disinformation affects carbon tax outcomes. A simulated economy run over 300 years finds that a majority vote can produce a stronger carbon tax than a cautious government, with peak warming lower by nearly one degree. But the advantage disappears once misinformed voters become the majority, causing the tax to drop sharply. The study, published in Risk Sciences, splits voters into informed and misinformed groups. Informed voters use the model's true damage estimate, misinformed voters assume warming is less harmful. Disinformation flips the median voter and weakens policy. Late disinformation is especially damaging because it erodes support after a stronger tax is already in motion. The authors argue that public communication, climate education, and platform rules are part of carbon pricing design, not a separate issue. The simulation code is public, so other researchers can test different assumptions.
