New research from the University of Washington, published in PLOS Climate, finds that historical emissions from the world's top 178 oil, gas, coal, and cement producers will keep warming the planet for centuries. Even if all emissions stopped tomorrow, the study says Earth would stay about 1.5 degrees Celsius above preindustrial levels because more than a trillion tonnes of past CO2 remain in the atmosphere. The study uses the FaIR climate model to simulate conditions through 2500. It shows that emissions from extraction and burning of fossil fuels keep radiative forcing positive for centuries, meaning future disasters can be linked to past production. The authors argue this strengthens attribution science and supports lawsuits that hold major emitters accountable for damages that have not happened yet. For anyone tracking carbon markets, climate policy, or corporate liability, the takeaway is direct: historical emissions are not sunk costs. They are active drivers of future warming and future legal exposure.
