Global fossil fuel CO2 emissions fell about 0.4% in 2026, to 42.2 billion tons, according to the Global Carbon Project. The drop was driven mainly by the Iran war closing the Strait of Hormuz, which pushed oil prices up and cut oil emissions by nearly 2%. Coal emissions rose 0.6%, and total CO2 including land use changes rose 1%. Scientists at the UN climate talks in Antalya caution that this is a price shock, not a structural shift. China's emissions fell about 1%, and some experts see signs of a lasting peak there. India's emissions rose 4.4%. The study is published in Earth System Science Data Discussions and Nature Climate Change.
