Global fossil fuel CO2 emissions fell 0.4% in 2026 to 42.2 billion tons, according to the Global Carbon Project. Scientists say the drop was driven by the Iran war closing the Strait of Hormuz and spiking oil prices, not by deliberate climate action. Oil emissions fell nearly 2% and natural gas dropped 0.3%, while coal emissions rose 0.6%. Including land use changes, total CO2 still went up 1%. This is only the third decline this century, after the 2009 recession and the 2020 pandemic, and both earlier drops snapped back once the shock passed. China showed a roughly 1% decline, raising hopes its emissions have peaked, while India's fossil fuel emissions rose 4.4%. The findings were released ahead of the UN climate talks in Antalya, Turkey. Experts quoted in the article warn that war-driven reductions are fragile and that the world still emits more than 1,300 tons of CO2 every second.
