Global fossil fuel CO2 emissions fell about 0.4% in 2026, to 42.2 billion tons, according to the Global Carbon Project. The drop was driven by the Iran war and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which cut oil emissions by nearly 2%. Coal emissions actually rose 0.6%, so this is not a sign of structural decarbonization. Total CO2 emissions still rose 1% when land use changes like deforestation and peat fires are included. China, the US, Europe, and Japan each dropped about 1%, while India rose 4.4%. Scientists caution that past emission drops during the 2009 recession and 2020 pandemic were followed by a return to old trends.
