New research from the University of Washington uses the Carbon Majors database and the FaIR climate model to trace what happens to carbon dioxide released by the world's largest oil, gas, coal, and cement producers through 2024. The result: those past emissions still add roughly 0.8°F (0.45°C) of warming in 2500 under a rapid decarbonization scenario, and about 0.6°F (0.31°C) under a high-emissions scenario. About 35 parts per million of the CO2 those producers released never leaves the atmosphere in the model. Because CO2 traps less extra heat as concentrations rise, the cleaner future actually shows a larger share of remaining warming traced to historical producer emissions, about 30% versus 5%. The authors note FaIR is less reliable in high-emission runs and call for larger Earth system models to confirm. The findings also feed climate litigation by extending producer attribution centuries forward.
