Fossil CO2 emissions projected to fall 0.4% in 2026, but not enough for durable decline

The 2026 Global Carbon Budget projects a 0.4% decrease in fossil CO2 emissions this year, driven by solar and wind expansion and the Iran conflict. Oil emissions are down 1.9%, but coal is up 0.6%. Total CO2 including land-use change still rises to 43.3 billion tonnes, and the remaining carbon budget for 1.5C is under four years at current rates. China leads in clean tech deployment, offsetting half of global avoided emissions from renewables and EVs, yet still emits 32% of the global total. The report warns that clean energy growth is not fast enough for a sustained peak and decline. Natural sinks are recovering but vulnerable to the developing El Nino. The full analysis is published in Earth System Science Data and Nature Climate Change.