Forest fires are a known, recurring risk for Indonesia's carbon projects, and a new assessment says they could undermine credits already sold. The Madani Berkelanjutan Foundation argues fire-prone areas can be predicted with more than 90 percent accuracy using existing spatial data from BMKG, the Ministry of Forestry, and the SiPongi monitoring system. Its own fire risk maps are about 96 percent aligned with government data and come out two weeks earlier. The concern is not just operational. Fires can break the permanence and additionality tests that determine whether a carbon credit is valid. Indonesia has issued 31.7 million tons of forest carbon credits worth around Rp5 trillion since early July 2026. The article does not say what protections buyers have if the underlying land burns, or whether credits would be reversed. Regulators are being pushed to include disaster risk in stress tests and in a draft sustainable finance rule. That would be a step forward, but the framework is still unclear. For anyone tracking carbon market integrity, the main question is how Indonesia handles reversal risk after a fire.
