A study from University of Utah researchers finds that forest carbon credit projects often ignore how climate change increases the risk of fire, drought, and insect damage. The study argues that if these risks are not factored in, credits may overstate the amount of carbon actually stored over time. Buyers and regulators should pay attention. If a forest carbon project assumes a stable climate but wildfire frequency keeps rising, the credits sold today may not represent real, durable carbon removal. The study suggests that accounting for climate-driven disturbance risk could change which projects are viable and how many credits they can issue.
