FIFA World Cup 2026 carbon emissions: independent model estimates 3.2 million tonnes, far below pre-tournament warnings but FIFA still hasn't released official figures

Researchers built a computer model to estimate the carbon footprint of the 2026 FIFA World Cup after FIFA failed to release updated emissions figures. The model found about 3.2 million tonnes of CO2e, below the original bid estimate of 3.7 million tonnes and far lower than outside forecasts predicting 7.8 to 9 million tonnes. The main reason is that all 16 stadiums already existed, so construction emissions were near zero. Travel still accounted for almost 90% of the total footprint. The discrepancy between the independent model and earlier warnings highlights a key problem in carbon accounting for mega-events. Pre-tournament predictions assumed massive international travel, but actual attendance patterns and existing infrastructure kept emissions lower than feared. However, FIFA has not published any official emissions data for the 2026 tournament, repeating a pattern from the 2022 Qatar World Cup where Swiss regulators found FIFA's carbon-neutrality claims misleading. For carbon market watchers, this case shows why third-party verification matters. Without transparent reporting from event organizers, claims about carbon neutrality or net zero targets remain unverifiable. The article also raises questions about how to properly account for emissions from travel versus infrastructure when evaluating large-scale events.