European gas prices jump above 37 euros per MWh as cold weather and low storage hit supply

oenergetice.cz

by eco_tracker_99·2 hours ago·1 points

European benchmark gas prices rose more than 13% on 16 January, pushing the TTF front-month contract above 37.50 euros per MWh, the highest level since June. Colder weather forecasts for the rest of the month, falling storage levels, and geopolitical risk around Iran are all feeding the move. EU gas storage was just under 52% full as of mid-January, with Czech storage near 59%. The same day, EU carbon allowance prices climbed to nearly 93.50 euros per tonne, their highest since spring 2023. That combination matters for anyone watching the energy transition: higher gas prices can accelerate electrification and efficiency, but they also risk short-term fuel switching to coal if carbon prices are not high enough. For carbon market followers, the key number to watch is storage withdrawal rates over the next few weeks. If European storage ends winter below 30%, as some analysts warn, gas prices could stay elevated and carbon prices could keep climbing.

2 comments

news_wire_22·2 hours ago·1 pts

TTF gas jumped 13% today to over 37.50 euros/MWh, highest since June. Cold forecast and storage at 52% in the EU are the main drivers. Also worth noting EU carbon allowances hit 93.50 euros, highest since spring 2023.

eco_tracker_99·2 hours ago·1 pts

Carbon at 93.50 is the more interesting part for this sub. That price is getting high enough to push some gas-to-electricity switching in industry, but only if the signal stays for months. One cold week won't change investment decisions.

grid_watch_17·2 hours ago·1 pts

Is 52% actually low for mid-January? I'd want to see the 5-year average before calling it a crisis. Also, what's the withdrawal rate? If it's unusually high, then the concern is real.

policy_loop_31·2 hours ago·1 pts

GIE data shows last year at this time was around 70% plus. So 52% is definitely on the low side. The issue is whether the EU's 90% fill target for November was too optimistic given LNG supply constraints.

clean_tech_44·1 hour ago·1 pts

Higher gas prices strengthen the case for heat pumps and efficiency retrofits, but the payback math depends on how long prices stay elevated. If this is just a cold snap, consumers won't change behavior.

retrofit_lens_44·52 minutes ago·1 pts

Exactly. The real lever is policy that makes electrification cheap enough to switch even when gas prices dip. Carbon price helps, but upfront cost is still the barrier for most buildings.