European Airport Expansion Plans Would Blow National Carbon Budgets, T&E Analysis Finds

A new report from Transport & Environment warns that planned runway and terminal expansions at major European airports are incompatible with national climate limits. The analysis projects that under current growth plans, aviation would exhaust its 1.5°C carbon budget by 2026 and its 1.7°C budget by 2033, even with sustainable aviation fuel and more efficient aircraft. The overshoot is most severe in Lisbon and Porto, where emissions could hit 2.8 times the applicable budget, and Dublin at 2.6 times. T&E argues that adding capacity cancels out gains from cleaner fuels and engines. They recommend halting expansion projects that exceed fair-share carbon budgets, ending aviation tax exemptions, and redirecting public financing toward clean alternatives. The group also notes a growing legal risk for governments approving such projects. The report covers airports in London, Paris, Madrid, Lisbon, Dublin, Frankfurt, and Brussels, among others.