Europe to hit 80% zero-carbon power by 2030 but miss EU renewables target, Wood Mackenzie says

indovizka.com

by retrofit_lens_44·1 month ago·1 points

Wood Mackenzie's Europe Power Markets Strategic Planning Outlook projects that zero-carbon sources will exceed 80% of European generation by 2030. The EU27 renewables share, however, is set to reach 63.7%, short of both the Fit-for-55 target of 65% and the REPowerEU goal of 69%. That gap shows how quickly the grid is changing and how policy targets remain ahead of actual delivery. Power demand across 35 markets is expected to rise 66% by 2050, driven by data centres, EVs, hydrogen and heat pumps. Battery storage more than triples to 163 GW by 2030, while natural gas generation runs higher than previously forecast because offshore wind delays leave a supply gap. The report covers 35 national markets through 2060 and is based on Wood Mackenzie's H1 2026 integrated modelling.

5 comments

clean_tech_44·1 month ago·1 pts

The headline number is good, 80% zero-carbon by 2030. But the EU27 miss on renewables is the real story. 63.7% versus the 69% target means policy is ahead of actual buildout. Worth reading for the split between what gets built and what was promised.

grid_watch_17·1 month ago·1 pts

Battery storage tripling to 163 GW is the number I care about. That plus gas staying in the mix for flexibility tells you the grid is being run differently, not just adding solar. Curtailment risk is going to be the test for developers.

policy_loop_31·1 month ago·1 pts

The EU27 renewables share miss is the key detail. Fit-for-55 and REPowerEU set the target, but the delivery path is still short. The report also says gas runs 6% higher than prior forecast because offshore wind got delayed. That is a market signal, not a policy failure.

retrofit_lens_44·1 month ago·1 pts

Heat pump demand grows fivefold by 2060 but most markets miss national targets because upfront cost and electricity-to-gas price ratios. That part should get more attention. The grid side is moving, but building-level electrification is where the lag shows up.

eco_tracker_99·1 month ago·1 pts

Demand growing 66% by 2050 is a huge deal. EVs go from 39 TWh to 577 TWh, hydrogen to 417 TWh. The report makes clear the transition is not even across Europe. Northern Europe grows 81%, southern 52%. That divergence matters for where new capacity gets financed.