India's steel quota for EU imports drops from 2.79 million tonnes to 1.94 million tonnes, a 30% cut, and any shipment above the quota pays a 50% duty. That change lands in the same period as the EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism, which adds a carbon price on embedded emissions. Together they make the EU a smaller, more expensive market for Indian mills that rely on blast furnace production. The Grantham Research Institute analysis explains why the quota cuts may bite before CBAM does. It also covers the open pool changes, the role of the EU India FTA, and the MRV data Indian producers need to provide. The core question is whether the package rewards cleaner steel or simply rations access. That question will shape how the EU treats aluminium, cement and fertilisers next.
