Kazakhstan's metal exporters are adapting to the EU's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism, now in its definitive phase. The rules require accurate emissions monitoring and verification for steel, aluminum, and other goods sold into the EU. Kazakh exports in these categories totaled over 611 million euros in 2025, with aluminum particularly exposed since the EU takes roughly 54 percent of Kazakhstan's aluminum exports. CBAM certificate prices are tied to the EU ETS, which traded between 73 and 85 euros per ton of CO2 from 2023 to 2025. That creates a direct financial incentive for producers to cut embedded carbon and invest in cleaner production. The first annual declarations are due by September 30, 2027, leaving a short window to build credible emissions data and verification capacity. Discussions at COP31 in Antalya focused on monitoring, reporting, and independent verification, plus possible government support for plant modernization. The outcome will determine whether Kazakhstan keeps its share of the European market or cedes ground to lower-carbon suppliers.
