EU carbon border tariffs on U.S. exporters projected to hit $231 million in 2026 and keep climbing

U.S. exporters face a growing carbon bill from the EU's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism, or CBAM. New estimates from the Niskanen Center show the charge on U.S. goods entering Europe could reach roughly $231 million in 2026, then rise to about $250 million in 2027 and approach $300 million in 2028. Iron and steel account for the largest share at $121.6 million, followed by fertilizers at $103.9 million, with smaller costs for aluminum, hydrogen, and cement. The high bill is driven by EU default emissions values, which are set deliberately high to push exporters toward reporting actual emissions. If U.S. producers could verify their real carbon intensity, the same trade flows might owe only $55 million to $65 million. The catch is that 2026 is effectively locked in because EU-accredited verifiers are scarce and actual emissions data for the year won't exist until after it ends. Congress could reduce future costs by designating an agency like NIST or the ITC to establish a product-level carbon accounting standard that EU verifiers can accept.