The EU's aluminium foil imports dropped 22.2% year on year in January-July 2026, but the unit carbon cost exposure under CBAM default values rose slightly, according to SMM analysis. Trade-weighted theoretical certificate exposure increased 0.7% to 2.655 t CO2e per tonne, driven by a shift in origin mix. China and Türkiye together accounted for 75.8% of calculable exposure, with China's default value more than double Türkiye's. This means declining import volumes alone do not reduce the carbon cost pressure on European buyers. The article also breaks down how default values, free allocation adjustments, and product classifications interact. For instance, China's net exposure under default rules is 4.56 t CO2e/t versus Türkiye's 1.82 t CO2e/t, a difference that translates to roughly €206 per tonne of foil at current certificate prices. Importers need to verify actual emissions data from suppliers and understand the CN8 subheadings, as the codes do not directly identify battery or other end-use foil. The analysis highlights that the contraction is concentrated in unbacked thin foil, while backed products actually grew. For companies sourcing aluminium foil, the practical takeaway is clear: default values are a screening tool, not a substitute for verified supplier data. The article notes that the calculation must include precursor emissions and follow the actual-data method for free allocation. As CBAM phases in, procurement decisions will increasingly hinge on detailed emissions evidence rather than broad labels.
