Energy Transition Reality Check: Global Carbon-Free Share Hits 14% But Fossil Fuels Still Grow | Roger Pielke Jr. Analysis

Roger Pielke Jr. analyzes the 2026 Energy Institute Statistical Review of World Energy to assess where the global energy transition actually stands. The carbon-free share of global energy consumption reached a record 14% in 2025, but fossil fuel consumption also hit a new high of 518 exajoules. The article breaks down the math behind net-zero targets, showing that reaching zero by 2050 would require retiring about 21 exajoules of fossil energy every year, equivalent to building one 1.75 GW nuclear plant daily or 2,000 wind turbines per day for 25 years. Pielke argues that net-zero 2050 is infeasible by any practical standard, but a 2075 target would cut the required pace in half. The piece also examines country-level fossil fuel changes, with the U.S. and China leading increases, and decomposes global decarbonization into energy intensity and carbon intensity of energy, finding that energy efficiency improvements drive almost all the decline while the carbon intensity of energy has barely moved in 35 years.