EmissionLink warns cheap FuelEU compliance units may slow shipping's fuel transition

EmissionLink, a compliance market analytics firm, warns that falling FuelEU Maritime surplus prices could undermine the regulation's goal of driving real adoption of lower-carbon fuels in shipping. After the first reporting year closed, surplus prices dropped from around 175-185 euros per unit to 120-130 euros, suggesting more compliance units were available than expected. The firm argues that if buying compliance becomes cheaper than using biofuels or investing in new fuel strategies, shipowners may treat FuelEU as an accounting exercise rather than a decarbonization driver. EmissionLink urges regulators to review the market balance and shipowners to build accurate data and early compliance strategies to manage costs as the market matures.