The U.S. Energy Information Administration kept its fuel ethanol production forecasts unchanged in the October Short-Term Energy Outlook. The agency still expects output to average 1.1 million barrels per day in 2026 and 1.12 million barrels per day in 2027, matching September projections. For reference, fuel ethanol production averaged 1.08 million barrels per day in 2025. Quarterly numbers for 2027 show a gradual ramp, starting at 1.1 million barrels per day in the first half of the year, then rising to 1.13 million barrels per day in the third quarter and 1.15 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter. The EIA also left net import forecasts unchanged at negative 160,000 barrels per day for 2026 and negative 180,000 barrels per day for 2027, meaning the U.S. remains a net exporter. For anyone tracking biofuel blending rates, renewable fuel policy, or the downstream carbon intensity of gasoline, this signals that near-term supply expectations are stable and that ethanol's role in the fuel pool is not shrinking over the forecast window.
