New analysis from Transport & Environment and Opportunity Green says Dublin Airport is on course to use up its remaining carbon budget by 2034, about 16 years ahead of 2050. The report gives Dublin a fair share allocation of 27 million tonnes of CO2 between now and mid-century, but current growth plans would burn through that by the mid-2030s. That assumes continued passenger growth after the Government moved to allow the airport's 32 million passenger cap to be lifted. The report covers 20 major European airports and finds all of them would exceed their 1.7 degree compatible budgets under expansion plans, even with cleaner planes and sustainable aviation fuels. For Dublin, growth to 60 million passengers by 2050 could add roughly 14 million tonnes of CO2, close to half of Ireland's total annual emissions in 2024. The authors say governments cannot keep approving airport expansion and meet climate targets at the same time. For carbon market watchers, the useful angle is how this interacts with national budgets. If aviation overshoots, other sectors like agriculture, heating and industry face deeper cuts to compensate. The report also calls for stronger measures including aviation fuel taxes, VAT on tickets, and fuller ETS coverage for departing flights.
