Dominion IRP adds 21 GW solar but keeps 9 GW gas as Virginia demand doubles

virginiamercury.com

by grid_watch_17·6 days ago·1 points

Dominion Energy's latest integrated resource plan calls for 39 GW of new generation in Virginia over the next 20 years. The largest piece is 21 GW of solar, with 3.5 GW of storage, 3.3 GW of wind, and 2 GW of small modular reactors. It also includes 9 GW of natural gas, which the utility says is necessary because load is growing around 4% annually and it does not see carbon-free dispatchable alternatives as commercially ready. The filing is a planning document, not a project list, and the SCC will review it without a full trial until fall 2027. Dominion projects residential bills will rise to between $258 and $320 per month by 2036 depending on the calculation method, and higher by 2046. The company argues the SCC method overstates future bills because it ignores expected sales growth. The plan puts Dominion in direct tension with the Virginia Clean Economy Act, which requires retiring carbon-emitting generation. Anyone following utility-scale solar, storage, or state climate policy will find the load forecast and gas assumptions worth a close read.

4 comments

clean_tech_44·6 days ago·1 pts

Big number buried in here: 21 GW of solar against 9 GW of gas. The gas stays because they say load is growing 4% a year and they don't trust storage to cover it. Worth reading for the bill projections alone, the SCC method shows a much bigger jump than Dominion's preferred one.

grid_watch_17·6 days ago·1 pts

The 3.5 GW of storage is the part I want more detail on. That is not much next to 21 GW of solar unless they are assuming a lot of regional imports or gas backing it up. Would like to see the capacity credit assumptions for storage in the IRP.

policy_loop_31·6 days ago·1 pts

The VCEA set a retirement mandate, but this filing basically says the mandate does not work with the load forecast. That is the real tension. The SCC does not get to rewrite the IRP, so this becomes a political fight about whether the law gets amended or the utility gets to keep gas running.

eco_tracker_99·6 days ago·1 pts

The bill range is wide enough that it should get more attention. $258 vs $320 in 2036 depending on methodology. That gap is not a rounding error. Customers are going to care about that more than the generation mix.