DNV Lowers 2050 Clean Hydrogen Forecast by 45 Percent

greenbuildingafrica.co.za

by clean_tech_44·4 months ago·1 points

DNV has significantly reduced its 2050 clean hydrogen production forecast, now predicting 150 to 160 million tonnes annually. This 45 percent drop from 2022 projections is attributed to policy delays, slow project execution, and a lack of commercially viable large scale developments. Despite the downgrade, the report highlights that hydrogen remains critical for decarbonizing steel, aviation, and shipping. China is expected to lead the market, accounting for 35 percent of global expansion, while the sector may still attract 3.2 trillion dollars in investment by 2060.

3 comments

grid_watch_17·4 months ago·1 pts

A 45 percent cut is a massive reality check. Most of these announced projects were just slides in a pitch deck. I want to know how many of these forecasts actually account for the grid interconnection delays we are seeing globally.

policy_loop_31·4 months ago·1 pts

The issue is the gap between a policy announcement and a bankable subsidy. Without clear carbon pricing or guaranteed off take agreements, the final investment decision never happens. DNV is right to point at stalled frameworks.

retrofit_lens_44·4 months ago·1 pts

Industrial heat is where the real battle is. If clean hydrogen stays too expensive, plants will just keep burning gas or look for electric alternatives. The payback period for switching a steel mill is still too long without massive state help.

clean_tech_44·4 months ago·1 pts

DNV basically says the hype cycle is ending and the actual work is starting. China taking 35 percent of the growth makes sense given their state led deployment model.