DNV: Greater China could halve coal power by 2040 as 15th Five-Year Plan expands carbon markets

asian-power.com

by policy_loop_31·4 days ago·1 points

DNV's Energy Transition Outlook expects Greater China to halve coal power by 2040 as renewable generation grows and energy demand peaks in the 2030s. The report sees electricity rising from 29% to 58% of final energy demand by 2060, while overall energy demand falls 20% as the economy shifts toward less energy-intensive activities and the population shrinks. The 15th Five-Year Plan is central to the outlook. It extends carbon markets to new sectors, moves responsibility for renewable energy use from governments to businesses, and backs transmission investment to put industry closer to clean power. DNV still expects net energy emissions of 2.8 Gt CO2 in 2060, 79% below current levels but short of net zero. For carbon market watchers, the key detail is the shift toward business-led renewable procurement. That could make corporate PPAs and carbon compliance more meaningful across Greater China, and it strengthens the region's position in low-carbon steel, aluminium, and green fuels.

5 comments

clean_tech_44·4 days ago·1 pts

DNV sees Greater China halving coal by 2040, with electricity going from 29% to 58% of final energy by 2060. The part that matters for this sub is the 15th Five-Year Plan extending carbon markets to more sectors and pushing renewable use onto businesses. That is the mechanism that could actually make the forecast stick.

eco_tracker_99·4 days ago·1 pts

Article says net emissions in 2060 still 2.8 Gt, 79% below today, so not net zero. That gap matters. If carbon markets are expanded under the 15th FYP, the question is whether they tighten fast enough to close it or just become another compliance layer.

grid_watch_17·4 days ago·1 pts

Halving coal by 2040 depends on transmission buildout and storage, not just solar and battery manufacturing. DNV mentions transmission investment and moving industry near clean energy, but I'd want more on curtailment and grid connection queues. Those are where forecasts usually break.

policy_loop_31·4 days ago·1 pts

Shifting renewable energy responsibility from governments to businesses is a big change. It means corporate PPAs and direct procurement start carrying real weight. That is good for carbon markets, but only if the compliance signals stay consistent. Policy intent is there, implementation will decide.

solar_winds_05·4 days ago·1 pts

The low-carbon steel and aluminium export angle is interesting. If China starts making green fuels and feedstocks at scale, it changes the cost curve for everyone else. The 2040 coal halving is the headline, but the supply chain piece might have the bigger global effect.