DNV cuts long-term clean hydrogen forecast to 210 Mt/yr by 2060, near-term outlook steady

hydrogeninsight.com

by clean_tech_44·19 days ago·1 points

DNV has lowered its long-term clean hydrogen forecast to about 210 million tonnes per year by 2060, down from 240 million tonnes in its May outlook. The revision comes just five months later and is driven by changed assumptions for shipping, aviation, steel, and power generation. The near-term picture barely moved, which suggests existing projects and near-term demand remain on a similar track while long-term expectations have cooled. For project developers and carbon market watchers, the update is a reminder that long-term hydrogen projections are highly sensitive to end-use sector assumptions. Hydrogen is not a universal decarbonization fix, and its role will depend on where costs, policy support, and competing technologies like electrification actually land. The revised numbers point to a more measured growth path, not a collapse in clean hydrogen.

2 comments

clean_tech_44·19 days ago·1 pts

The long-term cut is mostly about shipping, aviation, steel, and power. Those are exactly the sectors where hydrogen keeps losing ground to electrification or direct processes. Near-term staying flat says more about existing projects than future demand.

eco_tracker_99·19 days ago·1 pts

A 30 Mt swing in five months is basically one big steel or shipping assumption moving. Treat any 2060 number as a scenario, not a forecast. The useful part is that near-term demand held, so the project pipeline is not suddenly dead.

grid_watch_17·19 days ago·1 pts

Worth asking how much of that 210 Mt depends on electrolysers running at high load factors. If power prices or interconnection limits keep utilisation low, delivered cost goes up and those end-use sectors stay even smaller.

policy_loop_31·19 days ago·1 pts

The policy angle is that subsidies and mandates are doing the work now. Once tax credit structures shift or carbon accounting gets stricter, the long-term curve can move again. The May to October revision shows how fast those assumptions change.

solar_winds_05·19 days ago·1 pts

Good reality check on hydrogen hype. The near-term staying steady is the signal that matters for current investment. The long-term cut is just DNV admitting the demand side is slower to show up than they expected.