CSIRO veteran warns NSW forest carbon revenue estimates understate management costs

The claim that ending native forest harvesting in New South Wales could generate $1.5 billion in carbon credit revenue over 15 years rests on shaky assumptions, according to a former CSIRO scientist and a forestry industry leader. John Raison and Steve Dobbyns argue that the Mandala modelling underpinning the estimate uses a cost of $15.90 per hectare per year to manage public forests, far below what Forestry Corporation actually spends. They also question the projected volume of ACCUs, noting that the estimate of 1.5 million per year is 60% higher than the carbon content of all native forest logs harvested in the state. Raison and Dobbyns point to leakage: when domestic harvesting stops, imports rise, and those imports often come from countries with higher emissions and illegal logging risks. They also cite Forestry Australia's analysis suggesting the INFM method could over-credit projects by 40 to 100 percent. The open letter calls for transparent recalculation of ACCU numbers before the method is used to raise revenue.