Costs and conflicts: how energy supply shocks are reshaping the transition | CarbonCredit.io

A detailed analysis in Financier Worldwide examines how the Iran conflict and earlier Ukraine crisis are refocusing global energy priorities on security and supply diversity, often at the expense of net zero momentum. The piece highlights that EU carbon prices near 80 euros per tonne are still too low to make green hydrogen viable without subsidies, with required prices estimated at 160 to 280 euros per tonne. Meanwhile, Asia installed over 500 GW of renewables in 2025, led by China, but the Iran crisis is driving gas-to-coal switching across India, Japan, South Korea, and Thailand. The US has rolled back support for green projects and withdrawn from the Paris Agreement, while Japan shifts from green to blue ammonia. The article argues that countries with domestic renewable resources now have added incentive to develop them for energy resilience, not just climate goals.