CORSIA faces mandatory phase in 2028 with carbon credit supply concerns and EU review looming

Airlines in roughly 130 countries will begin mandatory compliance with CORSIA within 18 months, requiring an estimated 200 million tonnes of carbon offsets worth up to $5 billion. But available credits may fall short due to delayed government authorizations, stricter eligibility rules, and competing domestic climate commitments. Industry body IATA expects significant demand, yet analysts say only about half the needed credits are progressing toward full eligibility. The EU is reviewing whether CORSIA aligns with its climate goals, which could lead to expanding its Emissions Trading System to cover more international flights. This risks reopening disputes with major economies like the US, China, and India. Meanwhile, critics argue CORSIA relies too heavily on offsets instead of pushing for sustainable aviation fuel and technology investment, while developing countries say the scheme places unfair burdens on growing aviation markets. Supporters advocate improving CORSIA through reforms like expanding technical support for credit authorization, broadening approved methodologies, and directing climate finance toward aviation-specific projects. The outcome of this first compliance period will likely determine whether CORSIA becomes a stable global framework or faces continued political uncertainty.