CORSIA faces erosion risk as IATA warns of weak support and fragmented carbon markets

The UN aviation carbon offset scheme CORSIA is entering its first mandatory compliance phase, but IATA warns that uneven government support and competing regional rules like the EU ETS could undermine the system. The scheme's baseline was reset to a higher level in 2022, meaning airlines only offset emissions above 85 percent of 2019 levels, which sharply limits coverage. Environmental groups argue CORSIA's low carbon price and reliance on credits delay real investment in sustainable fuels and aircraft technology. Rather than a sudden collapse, observers expect gradual erosion as jurisdictions like the EU build stronger domestic carbon markets. CORSIA's future depends on upcoming reviews that could tighten baselines and credit rules before the second phase begins in 2027. For now, the scheme risks becoming a marginal floor rather than the central climate tool for aviation.