The first mandatory phase of CORSIA, the global scheme requiring airlines to offset their emissions, starts in January 2026. But available carbon credits may cover only a quarter of expected demand, leaving carriers exposed to higher costs and potential penalties. Analysts estimate demand for up to 200 million tons of credits in this phase, while supply remains constrained by strict eligibility rules and slow government authorizations. Developing countries like Brazil and Zimbabwe are still finalizing rules or facing technical hurdles, limiting the flow of credits. Airlines are hesitant to buy early due to uncertainty, but prices are expected to rise as compliance deadlines approach. The UK has proposed a penalty of £100 per non-compliant ton, and other nations are developing similar rules. This shortage tests whether CORSIA can deliver real emission reductions or just push costs onto airlines and passengers.
