Sylvera reports that billions in CORSIA compliance spending are stalled because host country governments have not formally authorized carbon credits under the Paris Agreement's Article 6 framework. While roughly 640 million tonnes of credits are potentially eligible for CORSIA Phase 1, only 47 million tonnes currently meet all requirements. Even with likely authorizations, the accessible pool of 118 million tonnes falls short of the 174.5 million tonnes of expected demand. The standoff has buyers holding back due to supply uncertainty while host governments hesitate to issue authorizations at current price levels. Major airlines like Emirates, United Airlines, Qatar Airways, and Turkish Airlines face the largest compliance obligations. Sylvera also notes that voluntary buyers, who made up 85% of carbon credit demand in 2025, could see their share drop to around 30% by 2033 as compliance demand grows.
