Corporate demand for sustainable aviation fuel could reach 1.9 million tonnes by 2030, IATA study finds

asianaviation.com

by clean_tech_44·12 days ago·1 points

A new study from IATA, Airbus and Accenture estimates corporate buyers could support between 1.0 million and 1.9 million tonnes of sustainable aviation fuel by 2030. That is up from 323,000 tonnes in 2024. The catch is that current SAF production is expected to be only 2.4 million tonnes in 2026, roughly 0.8% of global jet fuel use, and it still costs two to three times more than conventional fuel. The report argues that a reliable book-and-claim system would let companies buy the emissions reduction attributes of SAF used elsewhere, which could help share the green premium. SAF certificates currently trade at roughly USD 150 to USD 500 per tonne of CO2e avoided, while surveyed companies say they are willing to pay closer to USD 300. Clear accounting rules, tracking that prevents double counting, and simpler purchasing are listed as the main blockers. Separately, ICAO has joined the Supporting Alliance for CORSIA EEU Supply to help get more eligible emissions units ready before the 2027 compliance deadline. Authorized units stand at 72 million, well short of the estimated 200 to 250 million needed for the first compliance cycle.

5 comments

clean_tech_44·12 days ago·1 pts

The 1.9 million tonne ceiling sounds good until you remember total jet fuel use is around 300 million tonnes a year. Even at the top end, that is maybe 0.6% of demand. Useful signal, not a breakthrough.

eco_tracker_99·12 days ago·1 pts

Book and claim keeps coming up as the fix, but the details matter. Who verifies the attribute? How do you stop the same tonne being claimed by an airline and a corporate buyer? That is where these markets usually fall apart.

grid_watch_17·12 days ago·1 pts

SAF cost at USD 150 to 500 per tonne CO2e is a wide band. At the low end it is competitive with some offset prices, at the high end it is not. The study should show how much of that gap is feedstock versus processing.

policy_loop_31·12 days ago·1 pts

CORSIA EEU numbers are more concrete. 72 million EEUs authorized versus 200 to 250 million needed by 2027. That gap is the real story. ICAO joining an alliance does not issue units, it just coordinates.

solar_winds_05·12 days ago·1 pts

The interesting line is that airlines buy 53% of SAF certificates. Corporates are not the main buyers yet. If the accounting rules settle, that could shift. But the article does not say which sectors are willing to pay closer to USD 300.