A new report from Mordor Intelligence forecasts the global compliance carbon credit market to grow from USD 1.21 trillion in 2026 to USD 5.91 trillion by 2031, a 37.34% CAGR. The growth is attributed to expanding cap-and-trade programs, corporate net-zero commitments, carbon border adjustments, and Article 6 bilateral trading. EU-ETS allowances dominate with 74.12% of 2025 revenue, while renewable energy certificates hold the largest credit type share at 41.12%. Forestry and land-use offsets are expected to see the fastest growth at 43.94% CAGR. Europe leads the market with 76.85% of revenue in 2025, but Asia-Pacific is projected to grow fastest at 42.6% CAGR through 2031, driven by China, Japan, and South Korea. The report also breaks down delivery types (spot vs. futures), end users, and competitive players like Shell, BP, and EEX Group. For anyone tracking carbon markets, this report highlights where regulatory momentum is concentrated and where emerging schemes could shift the balance.
