A new analysis by climate scientists suggests that the most extreme warming scenarios are becoming less probable thanks to policy shifts and renewable energy growth. However, the same research warns that the best-case target of limiting warming to 1.5°C is increasingly out of reach without much faster emissions cuts. The report highlights that while global efforts have bent the emissions curve, current national pledges and deployment rates for clean energy are not enough to hit the Paris Agreement's most ambitious goal. The window to stay under 2°C is narrowing, and the gap between policy and action remains the key risk for carbon markets and project financiers.
