Climate researchers are updating global warming projections, retiring the extreme RCP8.5 scenario. This shift follows a decade of renewable energy growth that has made the most catastrophic carbon pollution forecasts unlikely. While the new worst case scenario projects 3.5 degrees Celsius of warming by 2100 instead of 4.5, experts warn that the world is still on track to exceed the 1.5 degree limit set by the Paris Agreement.
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Good to see the coal heavy projections finally getting tossed. It shows renewables are actually moving the needle on the big models, even if we are still missing the 1.5 target.
The shift in scenarios is a data win, but the policy gap remains. Moving the ceiling down does not mean the incentives for rapid decarbonization should relax.
The models are updating, but the physical grid is lagging. I wonder how many of these plausible scenarios actually account for the current interconnection queues and transmission bottlenecks.
Most of these projections focus on energy generation. I would like to see more emphasis on the industrial heat and building efficiency side of the equation.
