Climate models underestimate natural emissions from wetlands, wildfires, and permafrost, study finds

A new study highlights a major blind spot in climate models: they largely exclude warming-induced emissions from natural systems like wetlands, wildfires, and thawing permafrost. These feedback loops could add up to 0.6 degrees Celsius of additional warming, potentially shortening the time before the world exceeds the Paris Agreement's 2-degree target by 25 percent. The research points to a 60 percent increase in global wildfire emissions since 2001 and a recent methane spike linked to expanding tropical wetlands. In the Arctic, the tundra has flipped from a carbon sink to a net source of emissions. Scientists warn that without accounting for these natural emissions, countries may overestimate how much fossil fuel they can burn while staying within climate targets. Data gaps in remote regions like the Congo basin and Siberia make the problem worse. The authors argue that policymakers need updated models that reflect real-world ecosystem emissions, not just human-caused ones, to set credible carbon budgets and mitigation strategies.