Climate Models Overestimate Forest Carbon Storage by 30%: New Research

New research suggests the world's forests may hold about 30% less carbon than current climate models assume. That gap matters for carbon accounting, offset markets, and net zero targets that rely on forest sinks. The study points to modeling errors in how trees store carbon over time, especially in older forests. For carbon project developers and buyers of forestry offsets, this raises a practical question: are the baselines too optimistic? If models overstate carbon storage, then credits issued against those models may not represent real sequestration. The finding also affects national inventories under the Paris Agreement. This is not a reason to abandon forest-based climate solutions. But it is a reason to tighten measurement standards and avoid assuming forests will deliver as much carbon removal as older models predicted. Real-world data should drive the numbers, not assumptions.