Climate Analytics: Australia can end coal by 2034 and phase out fossil fuels by 2050

climateanalytics.org

by policy_loop_31·14 days ago·1 points

A new Climate Analytics report models how Australia could phase out fossil fuels by mid-century, starting with coal generation ending in 2034 and oil use halving by 2035. It argues renewables can supply virtually all electricity by 2040, while transport and industry shift to electricity. The report also calls for winding down coal and gas exports, halting new project approvals, and planning retirements before trade partners make those assets stranded. The study recommends converting Australia's Safeguard Mechanism into a real emissions trading scheme with a declining baseline and heavy limits on offsets. Climate Analytics says current policy would only halve gross emissions by 2050, leaving the rest to unsustainably large amounts of carbon dioxide removal. The report is the first in a series, with a follow-up planned on jobs and the economic benefits of a just phase-out.

4 comments

clean_tech_44·14 days ago·1 pts

The interesting part is the export side. Most net zero talk focuses on domestic electricity, but this report calls out coal and gas exports too. If trade partners move faster, those projects become stranded. That is the real financial risk for Australia. Worth a read for the policy list alone.

grid_watch_17·14 days ago·1 pts

Coal generation ending by 2034 is a bold date. The report does not get into how the grid handles the last few percent of coal retirements or what firming capacity replaces it. Renewables at 100 percent by 2040 sounds fine on paper, but storage and transmission buildout will decide if that date holds.

policy_loop_31·14 days ago·1 pts

The Safeguard Mechanism part matters. Turning it into a real emissions trading scheme with a declining baseline and heavy limits on offsets is the right direction. Offsets have been the escape hatch for too long. Without that constraint, industrial decarbonisation stays voluntary in practice.

eco_tracker_99·14 days ago·1 pts

This is one of the clearer national phase-out roadmaps so far. It ties domestic policy to export emissions, which most countries avoid. The next report on jobs and economy will be the harder test. If the phase-out creates losers, the politics gets messier than the modeling suggests.