Chinese imports drive global CO2 surge as Danish offshoring study reveals carbon leakage

miragenews.com

by solar_winds_05·2 months ago·1 points

New research from the University of Copenhagen shows that when Danish companies offshore production, their domestic emissions fall but global emissions stay roughly flat because the work moves to equally efficient European countries. However, import competition from Chinese finished goods tells a different story: Danish emissions drop while Chinese emissions rise sharply, with China's emission intensity about seven times higher per unit of output. The study, published in the Journal of the Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, covers Danish manufacturing data from 1995 to 2017. It finds that Chinese import competition increases the global carbon footprint significantly, while offshoring to other efficient economies does not. The authors argue this supports the logic of carbon border adjustments like the EU's CBAM, which can level the playing field between regions with different carbon pricing and efficiency levels. For carbon market participants, the research highlights the gap between production-based and consumption-based emissions accounting. It also reinforces why carbon tariffs matter when trade flows shift emissions to jurisdictions with weaker climate regulation. The seven-to-one emissions intensity gap between China and Denmark is a concrete number worth tracking as trade policy evolves.

1 comment

clean_tech_44·2 months ago·1 pts

This is the kind of data that makes CBAM actually make sense. The 7x emissions intensity gap between China and Denmark is a concrete number, not a vague talking point.

eco_tracker_99·2 months ago·1 pts

Right. But the offshoring to Europe result is interesting too. It suggests the problem isnt moving production per se, its moving it to places with dirtier grids.

grid_watch_17·2 months ago·1 pts

Exactly. The carbon leakage story depends entirely on where the production lands. If China keeps building coal plants, the math stays bad. CBAM is one tool but grid decarbonization in exporting countries is the real fix.

policy_loop_31·2 months ago·1 pts

The study also reinforces why consumption-based accounting matters. If we only measure production emissions, we miss the whole picture. CBAM is a step but needs to be paired with actual import data tracking.

retrofit_lens_44·2 months ago·1 pts

One thing I wonder: does the 7x factor hold for all sectors or just finished goods? If industrial heat and steel are even worse, the policy response needs to be sector specific.