China's Belt and Road climate footprint larger than estimated, steel production is the main driver

New research shows that over 700 Belt and Road projects in 105 countries generated more than 130 million tons of CO2 equivalent between 2008 and 2024. That is roughly equal to the annual emissions of 35 coal-fired power plants. Steel production, mostly from China's coal-fired blast furnaces, accounts for 53 percent of that total. The study, published in Environmental Science and Technology, also found that nearly half of the emissions came from outside the host countries. That highlights how global supply chains shift the true climate cost of infrastructure. Most energy projects in the initiative were renewable, and their avoided emissions can offset construction pollution in about two years. But researchers say that does not eliminate the need for cleaner steel production now. Cutting those emissions will require tougher environmental rules, carbon pricing, and investment in hydrogen-based steelmaking and electric arc furnaces. The findings make clear that policy cannot focus only on the host country. Every actor in the supply chain affects the final carbon footprint.