China EV transition faces lithium bottleneck before 2035 and cobalt squeeze after, study finds

azom.com

by news_wire_22·1 month ago·1 points

A new study using the COMERS model shows that ignoring critical mineral supply constraints could overestimate China's passenger EV ownership by 42% in 2060 and underestimate cumulative CO2 emissions by up to 57%. Lithium is the primary bottleneck before 2035, while declining cobalt production becomes the dominant constraint after that. The research covers seven scenarios including recycling improvements and cobalt-free chemistries like LFP batteries. The findings have direct implications for climate planning and battery supply chains. Under an idealized full-recycling scenario, secondary materials could supply up to 69% of lithium, 79% of cobalt, and 88% of nickel demand by 2060. The authors recommend strategic mineral reserves and lower-cobalt battery technologies to improve supply chain resilience. The model was applied to China, the world's largest EV market, where external dependence on these metals ranges from 72% to 97%.

1 comment

clean_tech_44·1 month ago·1 pts

This is the kind of analysis that gets ignored in policy debates. Overestimating EV uptake by 42% because nobody modeled mineral supply is a big miss. Lithium first, cobalt later. Worth reading the full paper if you track battery supply chains.

eco_tracker_99·1 month ago·1 pts

The 57% CO2 underestimate is the real kicker. If you plan climate policy based on models that assume infinite lithium and cobalt, you end up with targets that are impossible to hit. Recycling helps but 100% collection by 2060 is optimistic.

grid_watch_17·1 month ago·1 pts

They excluded sodium-ion and hydrogen vehicles from the model. That's a gap. If sodium-ion scales before 2035, the lithium bottleneck might not be as tight as this suggests. Still, the cobalt peak around 2045 is a real signal for battery chemistry R&D.

policy_loop_31·1 month ago·1 pts

The policy takeaway is clear: strategic mineral reserves before 2035, especially lithium. But the model only covers China. Germany and Japan have different import dependencies and recycling infrastructure. Applying this framework elsewhere would be useful.