Chemical Blue Hydrogen Market to Grow From $1.07B to $3.18B by 2030 on Low-Carbon Hydrogen Demand

openpr.com

by policy_loop_31·20 days ago·1 points

Chemical blue hydrogen is projected to grow from $1.07 billion in 2025 to $1.33 billion in 2026 and $3.18 billion by 2030, according to The Business Research Company. Demand is driven by industries replacing gray hydrogen, net zero targets, and early carbon capture and storage pilots. Major players include Exxon, Shell, BP, Equinor, Linde, and Technip Energies. The report segments the market by production method (steam reforming, autothermal reforming, partial oxidation), infrastructure, and end-use industry. Recent deals like Double Zero Holdings converting stranded gas and Technip's ATR and POx licensing partnership with Casale point to a focus on higher capture rates, up to 99% at the plant level. This is useful for tracking hydrogen project finance and CCS policy, but the summary does not fully address supply chain methane leakage or whether CO2 storage capacity will be ready in time.

4 comments

clean_tech_44·20 days ago·1 pts

Blue hydrogen is getting pushed hard as the bridge fuel, but the number that matters is how much methane slips past the capture step. This report says ATR and POx can hit 99% capture, but that's at the plant level, not the full supply chain. Worth reading if you want the market size numbers, just don't take the emissions claim at face value.

grid_watch_17·20 days ago·1 pts

The growth numbers are fine, but the real bottleneck is CCS infrastructure. You can build all the ATR units you want, if the CO2 pipeline and storage site aren't permitted and running, it's just gray hydrogen with extra steps. Also curious how much of that $3.18B forecast assumes carbon pricing or tax credits that aren't locked in yet.

policy_loop_31·20 days ago·1 pts

Exactly. The EU's delegated acts and the US 45V rules are still deciding what counts as 'low carbon.' If blue hydrogen gets classified as clean without strict methane and capture accounting, the market forecast becomes a policy artifact more than a technology outcome.

retrofit_lens_44·20 days ago·1 pts

For chemical plants, the alternative isn't always renewables. Sometimes it's blue hydrogen from SMR with CCS because the site already has gas and steam infrastructure. The payback depends on CO2 price and whether the capture unit actually runs at nameplate. Watch the operating data, not just the press release.

eco_tracker_99·20 days ago·1 pts

The article is mostly a market report summary, but the useful bit is the segmentation. Steam reforming with CCS, ATR, and POx have very different costs and capture rates. If you're tracking project finance, that's where the real differentiation shows up.