The Climate Change Committee has told the UK government that aviation is on track to account for 80% of the country's CO2 emissions by 2050. The committee says emissions from flying have more than doubled since 1990, while every other sector has cut its footprint. Even without Heathrow expansion, aviation would hit 38 million tonnes of CO2 in 2050. Adding a third runway would add another 2.4 million tonnes, around 5% of remaining UK emissions, and the CCC says expansion would compound an already weak policy position. The advice was requested ahead of a final Heathrow decision expected by 2029. The CCC found no credible policy to reduce aviation emissions in line with net zero. The previous jet-zero strategy depended on sustainable aviation fuels, electric planes and efficiency gains that the government now admits were unrealistic. The committee wants a revised strategy by 2027, with aviation covering its own decarbonisation costs through a polluter pays approach. It estimates this would add about £150 to a return flight to Alicante and £400 to New York by 2050. The report matters for anyone watching carbon markets and removals, because it treats engineered CO2 removal as part of aviation's compliance cost, not an optional extra. That could make direct air capture a policy-backed demand source, but only if the 2027 strategy turns the recommendation into regulation.
