CBAM default values widen exposure gaps for aluminium imports: Mozambique leads, China ranks high on intensity

The EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) entered its definitive phase in 2026, and a new analysis by SMM shows that country-specific default values are creating wide gaps in theoretical certificate exposure for unwrought aluminium imports under HS code 7601. Mozambique recorded the highest unit exposure at 2.13 tCO2e per tonne, followed by China at 1.913 tCO2e per tonne. However, due to limited trade volume, China's aggregate exposure remained relatively low. Mozambique alone accounted for 32.7% of total theoretical exposure from CBAM-covered origins, driven by high default values and substantial export volume to the EU. Canada, Bahrain, the UAE, Russia, and South Africa together contributed 76.4% of total exposure. The analysis highlights that producers with actual emissions below their country's default value could reduce certificate costs by providing verified data, making emissions reporting a competitive factor in supplier selection.