The CBAM certificate price for the second quarter of 2026 is expected to remain broadly stable, with analysts projecting a quarterly average slightly above 75 euros per tonne of CO2 equivalent. According to consultancy CO2 IQ, EUA auction prices have stayed within a narrow range of 70 to 80 euros per tonne during Q2, with the average since April sitting at 74.62 euros per tonne. The European Commission is set to publish the official Q2 CBAM certificate price on July 6. This stability matters for importers of steel and other covered goods into the EU, as CBAM certificates will be purchased starting in February 2027 based on these quarterly averages. From 2027 onward, the pricing mechanism will shift to a weekly average. The article also notes that proposed ETS revisions expected in July could increase carbon market volatility in the second half of 2026, which may affect future CBAM certificate costs.
