IDTechEx outlines how regulation and policy shape the business case for carbon dioxide utilization (CO2U). The US 45Q tax credit now gives CO2U projects the same value per tonne as dedicated geological storage, which removes a major policy bias toward pure sequestration. In the EU, carbon pricing under the ETS and CBAM coverage of cement and chemicals indirectly support CO2-derived products, while concrete made with captured CO2 can qualify as permanent storage because the mineralization reaction locks carbon away for thousands of years. E-fuels also get direct support. ReFuelEU Aviation sets a sub-mandate for renewable fuels of non-biological origin starting in 2030, creating demand for roughly a million tonnes of e-kerosene, and FuelEU Maritime does the same for CO2-derived methanol in shipping. China is meanwhile building large-scale e-methanol plants as part of its green hydrogen push. The report projects global CO2U market revenue growing from $14 billion in 2025 to $69 billion in 2036, driven by policy but also by products that work on economics alone.
