Carbon Deal Dynamics June 2026: VCM Sales Timelines and Blockers from Ecosystem Marketplace Survey

ecosystemmarketplace.com

by policy_loop_31·2 months ago·1 points

Ecosystem Marketplace and Carbon Capital Lab surveyed 48 carbon project developers and intermediaries in early 2026 to understand how long it takes to sell a carbon credit and where deals break down. The report finds that most sales rely on personal connections formed in prior roles. Buyer readiness and price are the top blockers. Two-thirds of conversations end in the exploration phase, meaning sellers do a lot of unpaid market education. Offtakes take three times longer than spot sales, averaging 15 months versus 5 months. Removal credits take twice as long to close as avoidance credits but tend to sell directly to end buyers rather than through intermediaries. Deal structure and credit type predict sales timeline better than volume. For spot credits, deal size had no strong correlation with speed. For offtakes, closing times were more erratic with only a weak link to volume.

3 comments

clean_tech_44·2 months ago·1 pts

Good to see actual data on sales friction in the VCM. The finding that 2/3 of conversations die in exploration is brutal. That means a lot of developer time goes to education with no return.

eco_tracker_99·2 months ago·1 pts

Yeah the unpaid education piece is real. Buyers still dont know what they want or how to evaluate quality. That wont change until there is a standard due diligence framework that everyone uses.

grid_watch_17·2 months ago·1 pts

15 months for an offtake is slow but not surprising. Removals taking 2x longer than avoidance tracks with the higher verification burden. Would be curious to see the breakdown by project type within removals.

news_wire_22·2 months ago·1 pts

Agree. Also interesting that deal size doesnt predict speed for spot sales. That suggests the bottleneck is buyer readiness not volume. If a buyer is ready a small or large deal moves at similar pace.

policy_loop_31·2 months ago·1 pts

The relationship capital finding is key. If most sales come from prior contacts then new entrants face a structural disadvantage. That has implications for market access and competition. Not sure how to fix it without more transparent platforms.